Expert Expressions
Dr C.P. Rajendran is an adjunct professor at National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru, and a director of the Consortium for Sustainable Development, Connecticut, U.S
Homo sapiens – the species to which humans belong – and their domesticated animals together constitute some 90% of Earth’s mammal biomass. This species has changed the face of Earth. Human activities are also catalysing the extinction of various species at the fastest rate in planetary history. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution in the 18th century, humans have become unbelievably savvy at manipulating the environment. Some of the more notable innovations of this period include mechanised agriculture, earth-moving, fishing methods, irrigation, groundwater extraction, dams, and industrial production of nitrogen-rich fertilisers.
The industrial era was also marked by the extraction of fossil fuels to use as energy sources. Their combustion added more chlorofluorocarbons into the atmosphere. The atmospheric concentration of two major greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide and methane – has been peaking exponentially since 1850. From around the same time, humans have released trillions of tonnes of fossil carbon – orders of magnitude greater than natural long-term sources – placing the planet at risk of a runaway global warming phase. The Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius discovered this prospect in 1896. Today, we know that the world’s average surface temperature is expected to rise by 1.1-6.4º C by 2100 – the highest since the last thermal maximum million years ago. We are witness to a paradigm shift in human history that’s playing out at breakneck speed. Seen another way, human activities have tossed humans themselves into uncharted waters – a new stage in Earth’s history called Anthropocene in which humans are the dominant forces acting on the natural environment, more powerful than any geological agent.
This brewing crisis is what forced 195 countries together to sign the Paris Agreement of 2015. Held under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and signed by 195 countries, the agreement proclaims its intention to limit global warming well below 2º C by 2100. The Paris Agreement identifies climate action as a path towards achieving Sustainable Development Goals and eradicating poverty. The encyclical titled Laudato Si’ issued by Pope Francis during the same time takes issues with the Christian doctrine of ‘Man’s dominion over Nature’ and reinterprets the biblical phrase as “the stewardship of Nature” as well as he stands firmly against the idea of unlimited economic growth founded on ecological destruction and persistent social injustice. As Amitav Ghosh says in his 2016 book, The Great Derangement, “When poverty finds mention in the Paris Agreement it is always as a state in itself, to be alleviated through financial and other mechanisms. The word never occurs in connection with justice”. The 2015 Paris Agreement, as Amitav Ghosh writes, in his book ‘The Great Derangement’, attempts to reconcile the future with the status quo.
None of the countries that participated in discussions on these reports wanted to address the issue of sustaining an infinite economic growth rate based on Earth’s finite resources. Politicians don’t want to upset the apple cart, however dire the situation, and admit the fact that nearly half the planet lives on less than $5 (Rs 407) a day. The dominant growth model has failed the ecological systems that are crucial for our survival. The benefits of wanton growth have only accrued to a fifth of the world’s people, leaving our societies to confront the Siamese twins of climate change and increasing inequality. The votaries of Keynesian economic theory believe that we can grow our economies as well as reverse environmental degradation using techno-fixes – a belief at odds with reality.
According to an Oxfam report released in 2017, eight individuals owned more than the poorest 50% of the world’s population. As Yuval Harari recently wrote in an article, with climate emergency, the onset of regional wars, and the emergence of disruptive technologies like Artificial Intelligence replacing the traditional jobs in the information and service sectors, the current world order is breaking apart. Oxfam report says that levels of anxiety, depression, and burnout are rocketing among the workforce. Full-time employees find it difficult to meet the sky-rocketing rents without involving in extra part-time work, while employers cut staff and increase workloads. The emergent runaway inequality and political and religious polarization are undermining social cohesion in many of the countries. The runaway inequality and political polarization are also eroding societies’ sense of cohesion even in the advanced countries of Europe.
One of the strongest critiques on the current growth model and its impact on biophysical limits came from a 1972 report entitled ‘The Limits to Growth’, prepared by a group of economists led by Donella Meadows. The report questioned the foundations of industrial society against the biophysical limits of the Earth and exponential population growth. In 2009, the world’s leading Earth-system scientists introduced the ‘planetary boundary’ frameworks that delineated safe spaces for human activities. The pursuit for unlimited economic growth and the surging extraction of natural resources is forcing humanity to transgress the nine sustainable planetary boundaries six of which are already been breached – that include biodiversity loss; climate, freshwater and land-system change; biogeochemical flows; and novel entities.
These realities compelled the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Intergovernmental Science-policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services to recommend degrowth measures to mitigate climate-related hazards and biodiversity loss. Ecological economists like Tim Jackson have called for an alternative approach and to give up the notion of the ‘gross domestic product’ (GDP) as a financial goal because it thrives on unlimited consumerism. Instead, they call on countries to develop other macroeconomic models that combine economic, financial, social, and ecological variables.
We need to heed the warning that the planetary ecological crisis has a multiplying effect on economic disparity – especially in Asia, Africa, and South America. It’s high time that we question the current economic model of prosperity, which serves the interests of a few, even as it is founded on ecological destruction and social injustice for the many. People around the world recognise that life is not getting any better. As detailed in a report to the United Human Rights Council prepared by the UN Rapporteur, this month, on extreme poverty and human rights, poverty eradication through the trickling down of wealth has only helped the rich elites to corner much of it. The report flags that “in the past four years alone, the world’s five richest men have more than doubled their fortunes, while 5 billion people have been made poorer”. As the climate crisis worsens, inequality and poverty will increase affecting the most vulnerable section of the society.
The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development that was finalized at the 2015 Paris Summit includes the goal of ending poverty in all its forms by 2030. If the current trend of widening inequality continues, it is postulated that about 575 million people will end up in extreme poverty in 2030. It is clear that the Sustainable Development Goal, known as SDG-1, agreed upon by the countries in Paris in 2015, will never be achieved, given the current economic growth models that are targeted at depleting natural and social capital. The low-income countries will face the brunt because growth models rely on exploiting cheap labour and extracting natural resources for corporate profits.
How to go about transitioning from the concept of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a measure of human and economic development and evolve a system that respects the Earth’s limit and whose success is measured by the Human Welfare Index. A theoretical foundation for such a post-growth vision is still in the works. The questions persist on the applicability of post-growth models and the projections need to be backed up by realistic measures to achieve the objectives. A group of researchers in an article in the journal Nature Sustainability in 2018 (“A Good Life for All Within Planetary Boundaries”, Volume 1) addresses some key questions in sustainability economics: “What level of biophysical resource use is associated with meeting people’s basic needs, and can this level of resource use be extended to all people without exceeding critical planetary boundaries?”. They look at the relationships between seven indicators of country-specific environmental pressure (relative to biophysical boundaries) and eleven indicators of social outcomes (relative to sufficiency thresholds) for close to 150 countries. Their findings suggest that “if people were to lead a good life within planetary boundaries, provisioning systems must be fundamentally restructured”. Provisioning systems comprise both physical systems that include physical infrastructure and technologies and social systems that include government institutions, communities, and markets. Provisioning systems mediate the relationship between biophysical resource use and social outcomes. As an example, the authors cite the biophysical outcome of the use of railways versus highways – the former relies on fewer resources with the same outcome as that of highways. Strategies to improve physical and social provisioning systems, with a focus on sufficiency and equity, have the potential to move nations towards sustainability, but the challenge remains substantial.
The Beyond Growth 2023 Conference organized by the 20 MEPs from five different political groups and non-attached in the European Parliament in May 2023 marked a turning point in the battle of ideas around post-growth. The meeting opened with an address from Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, and concluded with a stirring call to join the “movements of movements” to create an economic system based on sustainable prosperity, social justice, and sufficiency. The conference emphasised that GDP is only a marker of market production and consumption and it tells nothing about the distribution of wealth and social well-being. It is built on a false premise that economic growth equals human progress. As world leaders are preparing to meet for a UN-initiated Summit of the Future in September, the alternate vision for our future should be discussed to reach a broad consensus. We have no time to lose. The human experiment that Earth conjured two million years ago is under serious threat of extinction for the first time in its evolutionary history. In his 2003 book Our Final Hour, the cosmologist Martin Rees gave humankind only a 50% chance of surviving the 21st century. This is not far-fetched: our success or failure rests clearly on the choices we make today. (The article was first published in Mongbay)
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